IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.2	#195
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.6	#220
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.8	#282

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.7	#116

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.4%	21.9%	12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	13.7	14.8

.500 or above	62.3%	86.2%	59.5%
.500 or above in Conference	71.6%	85.5%	70.0%
Conference Champion	15.4%	28.2%	13.9%
Last Place in Conference	3.7%	1.2%	4.0%

First Four	2.1%	1.4%	2.2%
First Round	12.5%	21.5%	11.4%
Second Round	0.8%	1.9%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 7
Quad 4	11 - 4	14 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	73	@ St. John's	L	67-80	11%
Nov 27, 2020	157	La Salle	L	68-70	41%
Dec 08, 2020	174	@ Saint Joseph's	L	72-76	34%
Dec 11, 2020	259	Niagara	W	72-65	73%
Dec 12, 2020	259	Niagara	W	72-65	72%
Dec 18, 2020	176	@ Monmouth	L	71-75	36%
Dec 19, 2020	176	@ Monmouth	L	71-75	36%
Dec 23, 2020	310	@ St. Francis Brooklyn	W	72-68	62%
Jan 01, 2021	221	@ Canisius	L	70-71	45%
Jan 02, 2021	221	@ Canisius	L	70-71	46%
Jan 08, 2021	268	Fairfield	W	63-56	73%
Jan 09, 2021	268	Fairfield	W	63-56	72%
Jan 15, 2021	222	@ Iona	L	69-70	46%
Jan 16, 2021	222	@ Iona	L	69-70	46%
Jan 22, 2021	149	@ Siena	L	65-71	31%
Jan 23, 2021	149	@ Siena	L	65-71	31%
Jan 29, 2021	251	Manhattan	W	66-60	70%
Jan 30, 2021	251	Manhattan	W	66-60	71%
Feb 06, 2021	273	Rider	W	75-68	72%
Feb 07, 2021	273	Rider	W	75-68	73%
Feb 12, 2021	288	@ Quinnipiac	W	70-68	56%
Feb 13, 2021	288	@ Quinnipiac	W	70-68	56%
Feb 19, 2021	284	Marist	W	67-59	74%
Feb 20, 2021	284	Marist	W	67-59	74%
Projected Record						13 - 11	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.3	1.6	3.1	3.9	3.4	2.1	0.9	0.2		15.4	1st
2nd												0.1	0.9	3.2	4.6	3.8	1.9	0.6	0.1				15.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.1	3.8	5.0	2.5	0.9	0.1						13.5	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	3.9	4.6	2.0	0.3	0.0							11.8	4th
5th									0.1	0.8	3.8	3.9	1.5	0.1	0.0								10.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.0	0.8	3.2	3.9	1.3	0.1	0.0									9.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	2.6	3.3	1.0	0.1											7.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.0	2.6	0.9	0.1												6.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.6	1.8	1.8	0.8	0.1													5.2	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.5	0.0														3.5	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1															2.2	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	2.3	3.7	5.0	6.9	8.3	9.7	10.4	11.0	10.6	9.0	7.8	6.0	3.9	2.1	0.9	0.2			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
18-2	97.6%	2.1		1.9	0.2
17-3	85.3%	3.4		2.8	0.6	0.0
16-4	65.5%	3.9		2.6	1.2	0.1
15-5	39.6%	3.1		1.5	1.3	0.3	0.0
14-6	17.4%	1.6		0.4	0.8	0.3	0.0
13-7	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.1				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	15.4%	15.4		10.3	4.1	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		83.7%	75.0%	8.7%	9.1			0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0			0.0		34.8%
19-1	0.9%		59.8%	58.5%	1.3%	12.3								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.4		3.2%
18-2	2.1%		41.8%	41.4%	0.4%	13.0											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1		1.2		0.6%
17-3	3.9%		35.3%	35.3%	0.0%	13.6												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	2.6		0.0%
16-4	6.0%		32.5%	32.5%		14.1													0.0	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	4.0
15-5	7.8%		25.2%	25.2%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.3	5.8
14-6	9.0%		21.3%	21.3%		15.1														0.1	0.3	0.9	0.6	7.1
13-7	10.6%		15.9%	15.9%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.7	0.9	8.9
12-8	11.0%		11.7%	11.7%		15.6															0.1	0.3	0.9	9.7
11-9	10.4%		7.7%	7.7%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.7	9.6
10-10	9.7%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																0.0	0.4	9.3
9-11	8.3%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1	8.1
8-12	6.9%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	6.8
7-13	5.0%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	4.9
6-14	3.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
5-15	2.3%																							2.3
4-16	1.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
3-17	0.6%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
2-18	0.3%																							0.3
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		13.4%	13.3%	0.0%	14.6			0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.8	2.8	3.8	4.2	86.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	5.8		15.7			15.7	37.3	15.7		15.7